T By Andy Englund and William Barkley
AE: Keystone XL Pipeline (KSP) Ramifications
WB: Yeah? It seems like it was dead in the Trump days so Biden killing it is a formality, from my point of view.
AE: Republicans all over my Facebook (FB) and other social media are touting that as Biden single handedly killing thousands of jobs on his first day of office and already creating as many enemies as he can.
WB: Yeah, I can see why they’d think that, but they really should be blaming the state of Nebraska, as they have held up the pipeline for years.
AE: Isn’t that because the pipeline was going to go right over one of the largest aquifers in the US?
WB: Yeah that’s it, I didn’t realize it went through an aquifer. About 27% of the irrigated land in the entire United States lies over the Ogallala aquifer, which yields about 30% of the groundwater used for irrigation in the United States. The risk for contamination reaches as far as the aquifer. We can see why this is a big deal for the nation. No matter what Trump did, he couldn’t stop the states killing progress through the courts on the pipeline during his tenure. The KSP was dead in practice.
AE: I guess my point being, what did Biden’s executive order actually do, what were the consequences of said executive order both domestically and internationally, and why would he make that decision?
WB: Good questions, I think his Executive Order (EO) made reality evident, that is, it revealed that the KSP was down the tubes.
AE: Then why are Republicans convinced that Biden is to blame? I think some perspective both on the reality of the situation and the reasoning behind it might help ease some of the animosity on both sides, at least on the general public level.
WB: Yeah, it seems like a smear tactic used by the right wing. The question is, how much media hype is worth 11,000 jobs? In Texas alone, Tesla is opening up a new plant in Austin that can offer 15,000 jobs. So are 11,000 jobs spread across the US really newsworthy?
AE: I think the only reason this is big news is that Biden has officially taken a stance against oil, which isn’t surprising given his voter base, and the jobs lost, no matter the number, is just ammo the right wing is going to use against him. The other piece of the puzzle is Canada’s relationship with us since Trudeau had mentioned this as a key issue for him.
WB: Yeah, it seems like an overblown piece of political action meant to incite the right wing voter base. A larger focus could be on how Trudeau handles this defeat, with or without grace. The cancellation is a ruffle in the US-Canadian relations on Biden’s first day.
AE: And honestly, I don’t know that Biden could have revived the KSP alone, especially since he probably would not have backing in either the House or Senate on this. I agree it was more a formality to officially declare the project dead, but TransCanada, the company behind the pipeline, has debated taking legal action on this, so that’s always a possibility.
WB: Exactly, it seems like this action was a safe political maneuver meant to expedite the inevitable, the death of the KSP.
AE: So what’s the point in blowing this up? Just to cause division and spite the left? I think the intentions behind the movement to denounce Biden on this are just to be spiteful of the message of unity. I would think the right would happily take cooperation at this point since the left can ram legislation through with majority in House and Senate, but that for some reason doesn’t seem like it’s happening right now, and I think it may be because right wing politicians feel like they have to exhibit oppositional defiance to anything left wing in order to keep their positions.
WB: That could be a reason. The right wing doesn’t really feel like giving much political capital to Biden, as a sizable portion on the right believe Biden stole the election. We saw this trend in Georgia, where counties that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in Nov 2020 had low turnout for the primaries on 2021-01-05. It’s kind of sad, the GOP leaders there were having a hard time convincing voters to actually vote. So I think the right doesn’t feel like there’s much to negotiate. It remains to be seen how this will evolve when harder pieces of political changes come from the newly left leaning Congress.
AE: Do many of them really believe the election was stolen, though? There were quite a few that put up a front, and many might have believed that initially. But as more and more court cases were thrown out across the country, I think many of them came to terms with the fact that Trump’s popularity among his voter base didn’t translate to the rest of the nation. If anything, he actively turned out voters against him. Trump had a record 80% of media mentions coming up on elections when Biden only had 20%. Biden just let Trump shoot himself in the foot as many times as he wanted before election day, and it turned out in his favor.
WB: If you ask Trump, any publicity is good publicity, and he has been crafty at generating media attention with little capital. Ask Hillary Clinton how that worked out for her in 2016. As the Qanon conspiracy was shown to be a farce, more and more people are realizing the cold reality: Joe Biden is president. Where the right moves on from here is crucial, as former leadership is split. Led by Ted Cruz, 8 Senators and 139 House Republicans voted to not certify the EC on 2020-01-06 and other senior leadership like Mitch McConnell, Mike Pence, broke with Trump by backing Biden. The right wing is decapitated but not dead. The political vacuum is searching for a new leader that can avenge Trump. Stay tuned to what comes out of Florida these next four years, as a majority of Trump’s family, himself included, have relocated from New York to Florida since 2016.
AE: I’m honestly a little nervous about who comes out to lead the GOP from here. Beware a man who holds nothing sacred because there’s no line he won’t cross for power. Ted Cruz has heavily aligned himself with Trump even after Trump has insulted his wife and father. He was also the main proponent for refusing to certify the EC. I hope he doesn’t take over the party, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make moves toward that.
WB: I think Ted Cruz is too stained to lead. Many of his Senate colleagues, well before this insurrection chaos, publicly stated how much they disliked working with Cruz. To have a successful presidential run, you need the backing of your party establishment unless you’re charismatic like Trump. If Cruz had Trump’s charisma, then I’d say he would have a shot. No, the new leader for the GOP most likely won’t materialize until after Biden sets the stage for the GOP’s oppositional hero. In order to lead a minority party, you have to have a plan different from the powers in charge. Trump was still a joke in August 2015, so we have plenty of time to see the evolution of the right wing.
AE: And that would probably be for the better. I have hope that the right wing will reorganize itself and rise like a phoenix from the ashes of the party that Trump burned down on the way out the door. The right hasn’t always been so hot-headed or extreme, and I’d like to see a return to normalcy. I don’t think Biden is who the American people wanted in 2020, but rather the only feasible replacement for the one the people didn’t want.
WB: I admire your idealism. The rhythm in the country is tenuous right now, and I think the extremes are still getting more bold. Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17 year old who shot and killed two Black Lives Matters (BLM) protestors in Kenosha, Wisconsin summer 2020, got out on bail recently. He was seen drinking beers in a bar with white supremacist’s and members of the Proud Boys. Rittenhouse was accompanied by his mom, so drinking under 21 was legal. Just as a reminder, the Proud Boys are a right wing militia group in the US that got their name from the Disney Aladdin song “Proud of your Boy”.
Why this is important is that the mother, the community, and Rittenhouse, seem unapologetic of their actions last summer. The leadership, Trump, is gone but the movement of the far right carries on. The courts are now adjusting Rittenhouse’s bail rules, but it’s a moot point, since he’s seen as a symbol of resistance towards the left. Much like how the KSP was dead under Trump, the punishments for Rittenhouse are toothless, his community has already vindicated him. These are the subtle changes which might give us clues how the right will lick its wounds.
AE: And I’ve seen many of the far right wing speak harshly, even violently, against the left wing over social media almost as an act of bravado and kinship. What I’m hoping is that without the sheltering wing of the Trump administration, who went through verbal gymnastics to avoid denouncing these movements, that they will cease to find a foothold in the mainstream right wing as a whole. The dangerous side of the right wing is the fascists and white supremicists, and the dangerous side of the left wing is the Marxists and anarchists (namely Antifa) who don’t think progress is happening quickly enough. Some of the anarchists have found a foothold in the left wing to an extent, but not nearly to the same degree as the white supremacists and fascists did under Trump. Now that Biden is President, it may embolden them to escalate tensions with the far right, so it may become necessary for Biden to root them out of the mainstream left in the near future if we really want to make strides toward the unity he would like to see.
WB: The thing is, Biden doesn’t have to do anything. The establishment is behind him. See Twitter, FB, and other social media purging Trump and pals from online platforms. Regardless of the necessity of the action to punish Trump for inciting an insurrection, the censor from the established press and institutions give credence to right wing paranoia: that the media and establishment are out to get them.
AE: And that has created problems. The far right wing has been perceived to be the greater threat, so the hammer has been dropped on them harder than the extreme left. Most far left voices have not been silenced as of late, whereas many even moderately right voices have been silenced on social media. Whether that pertains to the Capitol riots or not is irrelevant in many of their minds because this is perceived to be a violation of their First Amendment rights. I know many in the center to moderate right are generally content that Trump is out of office, but I wouldn’t say they’re happy with Biden or even would like to see their representatives cooperate with the left. And unfortunately, because these representatives’ jobs depend on their voters’ perceptions of them, regardless of how fruitless oppositional defiance will prove to be, they will fight the left on anything that can be fought because their re-election depends on it.
WB: So on the menu for America 2021: division, conflict, and more conflict?
AE: I really hope not, but that’s what it’s shaping up to be. I see this as an inflection point. The god of the GOP has been dethroned in humiliating fashion. Either they will rebuild stronger than before and capture more voters with their platforms to gain power within the government, or they’ll take revenge on those who killed their god.
WB: Interesting contrast, as most Republicans would identify themselves as Christians, whose God forgave others while being crucified.
AE: And it’s honestly sad to see. The hill on which the GOP dies when it comes to morality is abortion. All else, even homosexual marriage I’d say, doesn’t matter. If the GOP stands against abortion, they will continue to capture at least the conservative Christian groups no matter what their other stances are. And if that means raising a god to strike down Roe vs. Wade, many of them would do it. I wouldn’t say that this adequately captures the crux of Christianity, or even that this represents all conservative Christians, but it seems to hold true for too many.
WB: Abortion has been a wedge issue for decades, that is, a political stance meant to separate others. It’s quick and does the job, as disparate socio-economic groups come together on this nexus of conservatism. Who would have thought that a Manhattan real estate mogul who publicly stated he had never asked God for forgiveness, would share the same political party as thousands of churches who claim they are walking in faith? The problem with wedge issues, is that the government does one thousand and one things in its everyday maintenance that doesn’t pertain to positions on abortion. For example, our decision to disband the US pandemic response team in 2018 had very little to do with abortion, except for the millions of people who voted for Trump based on their perceived importance of abortion.
Your government does numerous things everyday, like regulate roads, put fires out on homes, keep water levels safe and clean, all without deciding if abortions are allowed that particular day.
AE: Agreed, and ultimately, I know that they are looking to save lives through legislation, but what actions are these people taking themselves to address these issues? I think that there are quite a few churches who donate to or have members that volunteer in Crisis Pregnancy Centers, but I’d argue that there are many more members that do nothing other than vote against abortion to clear their conscience like that’s the only thing they need to do to address this moral abomination in their minds. They fight tooth and nail for legislation to get the baby out of the womb, and many of them do nothing to take care of it once it’s out. The number one reason many of these women get abortions is that they do not think they can financially support the child, but these conservative Christians typically vote for a party that actively works against programs meant to aid people of lower incomes. If you look at the numbers, abortion rates tend to decline at a slower rate under Republican leadership than under Democratic leadership. So while Democrats may fight for the right of a woman to have an abortion, they arguably seem to do more to prevent them. Abortion statistics in the United States – Wikipedia
WB: There’s a lot of issues at play for abortion rates and the lack of post-natal care available for low income mothers. One thing that folks on both sides of the aisle converge on is the non-existence of maternity leave. In Australia, primary carers are entitled to 18 weeks paid leave. And that is considered low in the international rankings. In Germany you get up to 65% of your pay for both parents up to 52 weeks. In the USA there are 0 guaranteed paid weeks off for maternity leave.
AE: If I remember right, Trump was the first Republican to bring this issue to the forefront of his party, so that may say a little about how he broke the mold for a traditional Republican coming into office. And that’s not the only thing he broke the mold on, but it’s interesting that with all of the divisive rhetoric he put forward, there were still some things he wanted to agree on with the left. He was also a proponent of the stimulus checks, though whether that was a re-election move or one of conviction is up for debate.
Either way, it’s nice to see both sides finally acknowledge that the US’s policies on maternity leave are practically non-existent and are far behind the majority of the western developed world. Maybe both sides can work to help lower abortion rates by making mothers more financially comfortable supporting their infant through their recovery knowing that they won’t be expected to take leave they can’t afford, especially with a new mouth to feed, clothe, etc.
WB: Good point about Trump calling attention to the maternity leave situation. It’s rather unfortunate that Trump didn’t bring much change to that scene. Few experiences compare to spending the first moments of your child’s life with them, even more so without bills piling up. Perhaps it would have convinced some voters not to vote for Biden. Moving forward, does Biden have any plans for maternity leave? I haven’t heard much out of the Democrats about it. It seems like a less divisive issue than increasing minimum wage to $15. Why not spend political capital on less politically expensive endeavors like paid maternity leave? If the minimum is 0 days off federally, then even a month off would be a nice laurel for the Biden Administration.
AE: I think a lot of politics as of late is reactionary, but that is especially true of a transition of power. A good amount of Biden’s policies were specifically designed to undo things Trump had done. Reinstate DACA, disband the 1776 Commission, rejoin the WHO and PCA, officially declare the death of the KSP, etc. It’s not exactly surprising, but I agree that something like paid maternity leave should have been popular across the board and been a good stepping stone into more cooperation between parties.
WB: Excellent point, the objectives so far from Biden is a mirror of what Trump did in January 2017: undo the previous successor’s actions, through executive orders too. It remains to be seen if Biden will propose new ideas and programs, and to be fair to Biden, it’s been scarcely a few weeks since the new administration’s takeover. Another point is seeing the potential for Biden to absorb some policies originating from the AOC and Bernie Sanders camp. Those two groups were instrumental in tipping Biden to victory, and they intend to cash in their political capital.
AE: The funny thing is that Biden did have a platform, but he really didn’t run on it. He ran on the idea of not being Trump. Many Americans didn’t care what Biden said he was going to do as long as he didn’t do what Trump was doing. So the first wave of EO’s comes as no surprise given that context. His major platforms that the right has focused on are his stance in favor of renewables/green energy and against oil and his stance on healthcare (though I think they’ve been misled on his actual policies). Many on the right call him a socialist or Communist without having any idea what he actually stands for, but educated people will point out his inconsistent statements on fracking and his vague interpretations of his healthcare plans.
WB: Yeah it’s not looking very inspirational for Biden. He has acted quite shady on his stance on fracking, and seems content to acquiesce on Medicare for All, though to be fair, he wasn’t originally on board with Medicare for All as it was a Sanders’ campaign creation. One piece of news I saw was that Biden wants to move some federal vehicles towards electric. I guess that’s some of the small, mundane, yet important, changes in government that Americans want a return towards from the past four years of unpredictability.
As for the Communist accusations, it’s a laughable statement detracting from the right wing’s legitimate complaints. Communists consolidate state power for the proletariat. They end free enterprise. Biden hasn’t done, nor stated anything of the sort. He’s come out against expanding the government program of Medicare for all Americans, a move which garnered the ire of AOC and Bernie supporters. The right wing needs to polish up on their lexical vocabulary to be taken seriously.
AE: Honestly, resorting to “Commies” seems like a Reagan-era holdover that’s just a placeholder for “enemy of capitalism”. Many probably don’t seriously consider him a Communist, and those that do deserve to not be taken seriously. It’s the equivalent of the left wing calling Trump a Nazi.
As for electric vehicles, I know some hardcore oil and gas people may be upset, but the reality is that electric vehicles aren’t a bad option for commuter vehicles like many in the government’s fleets. It also shouldn’t be a surprise that oil as we know it today is a finite resource, so finding little alternatives here and there for mundane transportation and energy should be a big win considering that we would like to conserve oil for applications with few suitable alternatives like plastics or aviation fuel.
Moving to electric vehicles definitely seems like a much less controversial step than rewriting American history to be more “patriotic”. Trump didn’t do himself any favors with such grandiose displays since, whether they were good or bad, they were inevitably polarizing. I don’t think it’s wrong to be proud of your country, but the interpretation was that focusing on the good would be to ignore the bad. I think many have this idea that the current history curriculums are designed to make children ashamed of their country, and since I haven’t been through a history class in a while, I can’t say whether that’s true, but if the movement had been messaged as a standardization of key points to include in the curriculum (with no power to remove items from the curriculum), I don’t think it would have been so controversial. More moves by Biden like moving federal vehicles to electric cars wouldn’t necessarily set him as a historic President, but I think being mundane may be better than the legacy Trump leaves behind and make some strides toward cooperation between parties on smaller, less divisive issues.
WB: It’ll be an interesting four years as we see the evolution of the right, which is dependent on the policies done by Biden and Congress. If the left can hit on some popular bi-partisan objectives, like paid maternity, legalization of cannabis, or reforming healthcare, then the right will have less reason to move extreme. If Biden, with his slim control over Congress, pursues divisive and partisan policies, then we can see an equally extreme reaction from right wing leaders and sympathizers.
AE: I agree. I would like to see the right return to relative civility, but that is largely dependent on how the next 2-4 years go while the left has power. The country has always been a pendulum, swinging power back and forth over the centuries, and I think this is probably the second wildest we’ve ever seen the pendulum swing barring the Civil War. I don’t reasonably see a Civil War occurring in the near future, but I hope that the left will move forward with bi-partisan efforts to bring the swing of the pendulum back to tolerable levels. Otherwise we risk breaking the clock.
WB: Well said. Another time the pendulum swung hard was after the stock market crash of 1929-10-29. The world had several choices how to react. Germany chose fascism, the US chose progressivism. The same event caused two different reactions. History hasn’t been written yet, and we each can choose to end the polarization by responding in love, not deleting our friends’ list, and perhaps by logging off social media for a bit. Pray for stronger backs, not easier times.